Donald Trump Jr’s Transgender Mass-Shooter Claim Is VERY False According To The Data
Following the murder of right-wing political agitator, Charlie Kirk, Donald Trump Jr claimed that transgender people are behind the most recent mass shootings in the US and are responsible for most mass shootings in the US. Here is what he said:
“I can’t, frankly, name a mass shooting in the last year or two in America that wasn’t committed by a transgender lunatic that’s been pumped up on probably hormones since they were three year old.”
You read that right! And obviously it’s completely false.
Of the 4,177 mass shootings in the U.S. between 2018 and 2025, only seven have been attributed to a trans person.
Independent fact-checkers reviewing federal and open-source databases found only a handful of cases involving transgender or nonbinary suspects in the past decade, accounting for far less than 1% of U.S. mass shootings, depending on the definition used.
“Mass shooting” is defined in different ways, which is why precise sourcing matters. The Gun Violence Archive counts incidents where four or more people are shot, regardless of motive; under that broader lens, five incidents since 2013 involved transgender or nonbinary suspects, which is under 0.1% of thousands of cases.
Research groups that focus on targeted rampage killings report a similar result: perpetrators are overwhelmingly cisgender men.
Yes, you can watch the clip… and then check the receipts.
A short Instagram reel from an Australian TV program, Planet America, calls the claim “flatly wrong” and cites the Gun Violence Archive totals. Host John Barron calls the claim absurd and clearly can’t quite believe what he’s hearing. Roll the clip…
Days after the shooting, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) removed from its website an NIJ (National Institute of Justice) summary that said far-right extremists have committed “far more” deadly attacks than far-left or Islamist extremists since 1990. The write-up tallied 227 far-right incidents causing 520+ deaths, versus far fewer from other ideologies. The archived findings align with years of outside analyses. The DOJ says the takedown was part of a site review, but the timing raised eyebrows across the press.
ASIO (Australian Security Intelligence Organisation) has repeatedly warned about violent right-wing extremism. In 2020, ASIO said far-right violent extremism was a “real and growing” part of its counter-terrorism caseload, at times comprising up to 40% of investigations. In 2024, security officials again noted increased activity among small groups seeking to incite racial conflict. ASIO has since updated its public language, but the substance of those assessments remains clear.
So where did the trans-mass-shooter story come from?
It spreads fast after high-profile violence, fuelled by memes, miscaptioned images, and cherry-picked lists that collapse different definitions into one scary headline. Researchers and journalists who track disinformation have debunked fabricated charts and false attributions in recent weeks. The pattern is familiar: claims surface first, data arrives later. We prefer to start with the data.
There is no evidence of a surge in mass shootings by transgender people. There is strong evidence that far-right violence has caused more deadly attacks in the U.S. over decades, and that right-wing violent extremism has been an enduring concern for Australian security agencies.
