With the Australian Bureau of Statistics announcing they have sent out approximately 10 million of the 16 million same-sex marriage postal survey forms as of this week, certainly for the ‘Yes’ campaign winning the vote is in doubt after an opinion poll released by Essential Media showed data that support for same-sex marriage is at its lowest in years.
Concerns for the ‘Yes’ campaign come after looking at the continued downward trend of support for same-sex marriage. In just under a two-year period, support for a change to the marriage act has fallen from its highest point of 76% back in March 2016 to 63% in August 2017 just before the postal survey began, down to 55% as of this week.
In the past fortnight of the two-month long campaign, different polls show similar change, support for a ‘no’ vote on average has risen by 3%, with support for the ‘yes’ vote down on average by 4%.
The increase in popularity of the ‘No’ campaign has been attributed to analysis that suggests opponents of SSM have outspent the yes campaign by about five-to-one in television ads along with their intensified efforts to raise concerns about religious freedoms, freedom of speech and safe schools.
Further statistics indicate that just 65 percent of registered voters are likely to partake in the postal survey and only 58 percent of those aged 18 to 34 likely to return their ballot, however, most who indicated they will definitely vote in the survey are more likely to support same-sex marriage than oppose it.