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Study Predicts ‘No’ Vote Win

A recent Twitter study by academics from the Griffith University in Queensland Australia has predicted a narrow win for the ‘No’ vote in the non-binding same-sex marriage postal survey.

The technique used to study Twitter opinions boasts that it correctly predicted the US presidential election.

Academics David Tuffley and Bela Stantic analysed 458,565 tweets from Australian users to determine what side of the debate the users were on and how much they cared about it.

Their conclusion:

So it is likely to be a close-run result, much closer than the earlier polls suggested, and leaning in the direction of No.

One of the problems with predicting poll outcomes is that people are often reluctant to say out loud what they really think about issues. What people say online can often be more accurate than what they say to each other in this age of political correctness.

In the lead-up to the recent US presidential election, the polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton win because many people were publicly saying “No” to Trump when asked by pollsters. But in the privacy of the booth, people quietly voted according to what they actually thought.

 

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